Sweden: tight elections this Sunday with the far right in an unprecedented place

A new European country with a government supported by the far right, or a third term for the left? Sweden votes on Sunday after a campaign with maximum suspense and an unprecedented scenario, dominated by crime and inflation.

Never until these legislative elections had the traditional Swedish right considered governing with the direct or indirect support of the Democrats of Sweden (SD).

Long pariah, the nationalist and anti-immigration party is on the way according to the polls to grab an unprecedented second place, and to become the first formation of a new right-wing bloc.

The outgoing Prime Minister, the Social Democrat Magdalena Andersson, hopes to stay in power by relying on a set of “Red Green“, for a third term of four years in a row for the left.

The campaign was dominated by themes likely to favor the right-wing opposition: criminality and deadly gang settling, soaring fuel and electricity prices, problems integrating immigrants, etc.

But the solid popularity of Ms Andersson, whose superior trust rating exceeds that of her Tory rival Ulf Kristersson, and the far-right bogeyman for centrist voters argues in favor of the left.

The five pollsters give a very slight lead to the red-green camp, in their last salvos, but all are within the margin of error and the figures have been ultra-tight for two weeks.

Touch touch

The left bloc led by the Social Democrats – Sweden’s largest party since the 1930s – with the expected support of the Greens, the Left party and the Center party, is credited with between 49.6% and 51, 6%.

The total of the rights – SD, Moderate Party (conservative), Christian Democratic Party and Liberal Party – sails between 47.6% and 49.4%.

It’s a very very tight race“, noted Prime Minister Andersson on the last day of the campaign on Saturday.

Of course I am worried about a government completely dependent on the Democrats of Sweden as the first party in government or the first support […] It would be a different Sweden we would have for four years“.

The last two weeks of campaigning have seen the SD, led for the fifth consecutive election by their leader Jimmie Åkesson, overtake the Moderates in the polls, around 19-21%, above their record of 17.5% in 2018.

Led for the second time by their leader Ulf Kristersson, the Moderates have lost ground around 16-18% in the latest opinion polls.

The post of Prime Minister traditionally falls in Sweden to the first party of the victorious alliance, but the parties of the traditional right are hostile to having SD ministers, a fortiori leaving them the post of head of government.

On the left too, the exact form of a future executive coming out of the ballot box remains marked by uncertainty: the Left party is hostile to seeing the Center exercise too much influence, and vice versa.

But according to political scientists, a political crisis similar to that which followed the 2018 elections – four months to form a government – ​​is unlikely, this time the camps being more demarcated.

349 seats

The victory of the right supported by the extreme right would open a new political era for Sweden, which must take the rotating presidency of the European Union on January 1 and finalize its historic candidacy for NATO.

A new victory for the left would invalidate the strategy of a rapprochement between the right and the SD, which would both remain powerless in the opposition.

A total of 349 seats are at stake in a proportional vote, where only parties achieving more than 4% win seats. To be invested, a Prime Minister must not have 175 votes or more against him, but it is not necessary to have an absolute majority of favorable votes.

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published.