World Cup 2022: an algorithm already predicts the winner

Belgium would only have a 7.9% chance of winning the competition, according to an algorithm.

Stats Perform has put at least one prediction model that uses team performance, betting market odds and internal company rankings to predict matches for the 2022 World Cup, which will take place in December in Qatar.

According to the algorithm, France would be the team with the best chance of winning the World Cup this year. The Blues (17.93%) would be ahead of Brazil (15.73%), Spain (11.53%), England (8.03%) and Belgium (7.9%).

To achieve these results, the company simulated the tournament thousands of times. In almost 8% of the simulations, Belgium won the World Cup.

If Belgium has half the chance of winning the World Cup than France according to this model, it should be noted all the same that more than half of the teams which will fly to Qatar will have practically no chance of winning the competition. . Some teams never even managed to win the tournament through the thousands of simulations. This is the case of Costa Rica, Saudi Arabia and Cameroon. Most will face tough opponents in the first round. Costa Rica thus found itself in the group of Germany, Japan and Spain.

Only eleven teams would also have more than a 2% chance of winning the tournament, according to the algorithm.

In 2020, the Stats Perform algorithm also predicted a victory for the France team, with a 20.5% chance. Switzerland knocked their neighbor out of the competition in the round of 16, before winning the cup, when their chances of winning the tournament were only estimated at 7.6%.

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